According to analysis, the ongoing El Niño climate phenomenon is expected to intensify global warming and bring unprecedented high temperatures to regions ranging from the Amazon to Alaska by 2024.

The Bay of Bengal and South China Sea coastal regions in India, as well as the Philippines and the Caribbean, may encounter extreme heat until June, according to experts. However, El Niño is expected to weaken after this time.

The natural phenomenon, in which heat is released from the western Pacific Ocean, is known to increase global surface temperatures and helped 2023 smash the record for the hottest year by a large margin. Extreme heat in the second half of 2023 as El Niño kicked in had severe impacts on people living in North America, Europe and China, South America and Madagascar as the climate crisis intensified.

Using computer simulations, the recent study pinpointed potential areas of high temperature in the first six months of 2024. Additionally, it concluded that there is a 90% likelihood of the global temperature breaking a new record during this time frame.

Dr. Ning Jiang and fellow researchers at the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences in Beijing have found that the increasing frequency of intense heatwaves and tropical cyclones, along with the rising global sea levels caused by human activities, have created a pressing climate emergency for densely populated coastal regions. This crisis poses significant challenges for our ability to adapt, mitigate, and manage the associated risks.

The upcoming heat increases the chances of ongoing ocean heatwaves and intensifies the danger of wildfires and other unfavorable outcomes in Alaska and the Amazon basin, according to the speaker. Coastal regions and seas are especially at risk because the ocean can retain more heat than land, allowing for extended periods of hot weather.

The Earth’s climate experiences natural fluctuations between El Niño and its cooler counterpart, La Niña. This helps regulate the overall trend of global warming, which is primarily driven by the increase of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels in the air.

The new study, published in the journal Scientific Reports, simulated the impact of El Niño on regional changes in surface air temperatures from July 2023 to June 2024. El Niño typically reaches its highest point between November and January.

The researchers discovered that the Amazon is expected to experience exceptionally high temperatures in 2024, posing a higher threat of wildfires. The region was affected by intense fires and drought in late 2023, and the emissions from fires during February have surpassed previous records for that month. According to the scientists, if Alaska experiences record-breaking heat, it could lead to the melting of glaciers and permafrost, as well as coastal erosion.

According to Prof Adam Scaife from the Met Office and University of Exeter, this research uses actual temperature data and our understanding of El Niño and other impacts to make predictions about the conditions in 2024. While it is not the most advanced forecast, it does provide a valuable initial outlook for the upcoming year.

“Some regions, Africa and Greenland for example, have poor historical data coverage and are hard to assess with these methods, but they are highlighted as regions with prominent levels of excess heat this year in climate model forecasts.”

Source: theguardian.com