According to meteorologists, February is on track to surpass the highest number of heat records, due to both human-induced global warming and the El Niño weather phenomenon, leading to rising temperatures on both land and sea globally.

As we approach the middle of the shortest month, the sudden increase in heating has reached a significant level. Climate charts are now showing unprecedented data, especially for sea-surface temperatures. These temperatures have remained high and are rapidly increasing, leaving experts puzzled as to the cause of this sudden change.

Dr. Joel Hirschi, the associate head of marine systems modelling at the UK National Oceanography Centre, stated that the Earth is experiencing a faster rate of warming. This is evident through the significant rise in ocean temperatures, which is the primary source of heat in the climate. The increase in sea surface temperatures in 2023 and 2024 has surpassed previous records, but the cause of this phenomenon is still being studied.

According to scientist Zeke Hausfather from Berkeley Earth, humanity is headed towards experiencing the warmest February ever recorded, following record-breaking months of January, December, November, October, September, August, July, June, and May.

He stated that the increase in the past few weeks is predicted to reach 2C above pre-industrial levels. However, this should only be a temporary effect due to El Niño, following the pattern of previous years and expected to decrease in the upcoming months.

2 continues to increase

The potential arrival of a temperature-decreasing La Niña could be good news, but Hausfather notes that climate patterns have become more unpredictable and difficult to anticipate. Due to the unexpected outcomes of last year, there is less confidence in previous approaches used for predictions. It is likely that February 2024 will surpass the previous record set in 2016, but it is not guaranteed as weather models indicate a decrease in global temperatures in the near future. These extreme temperatures may suggest an acceleration in warming in recent years, in line with climate models’ predictions if CO2 levels continue to rise.₂

The release of emissions remains constant while aerosols decrease – it may not be as concerning as previously believed.

Weather observers were taken aback by the initial half of February. Maximiliano Herrera, author of the blog Extreme Temperatures Around the World, characterized the influx of numerous heat records from meteorological stations as “unbelievable”, “utter chaos”, and “a rewriting of climatic history”. What amazed him was not only the quantity of records, but also the magnitude by which many of them exceeded any previous records.

He stated that Morocco had recorded 12 weather stations with temperatures over 33.9C, breaking the national record for the hottest winter day. This was also more than 5C higher than the average for July. In the northern Chinese city of Harbin, the winter ice festival had to be closed due to temperatures rising above freezing for three consecutive days this month.

Last week, monitoring stations in various locations such as South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Thailand, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Colombia, Japan, North Korea, the Maldives, and Belize reported record-breaking temperatures for the month.

During the first half of this month, Herrera reported that 140 countries experienced record high temperatures for the month. This number was comparable to the final data for the six previous hottest months in 2023 and was more than three times higher than any month prior to 2023.

Experienced observers are amazed by the high levels of heat on the surface of the ocean, which could potentially lead to more severe storms later in the year. Michael Lowry, a specialist in hurricanes, stated on Twitter that sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic’s main development area, where most category 3 or higher hurricanes in the US form, are currently as warm as they usually are in the middle of July. This is astonishing.

According to Hirschi, the global temperatures of the sea are at a level that has not been seen before. He predicts that March will surpass the record set in August by 0.1C to 0.2C. This is because March is usually the warmest time of the year for oceans due to it being late summer in the southern hemisphere, where the majority of the world’s major seas are located.

The sudden increase in temperature was predicted, but the extent of it was unexpected. Scientists are currently researching how to determine the significance of various factors contributing to these irregularities.

A powerful El Niño event has caused a rise in temperatures, according to Copernicus senior scientist Francesca Guglielmo. However, she also pointed out that this is just one of multiple contributing factors to the warming. Human emissions of carbon dioxide are putting added strain on the oceans. Additionally, weakened trade winds, a sluggish jet stream, changes in North Atlantic currents, and decreased aerosol pollution have all played a role in amplifying the abnormal heat. This has resulted in more of the ocean being exposed to sunlight.

According to Katharine Hayhoe, who is the chief scientist at The Nature Conservancy, the unknowns regarding how various factors interact serve as a reminder that we don’t have a complete understanding of how the intricate Earth system is reacting to the unprecedented increase in radiative forcing. She also noted that this is occurring at a considerably faster pace than has ever been recorded in history. Hayhoe stated that if anything, we are more prone to underestimating the effects these changes will have on human society rather than overestimating them.

El Niño is now weakening, which should ease temperatures in the equatorial Pacific from late spring or early summer. If the North Atlantic remains warm at that time, this could herald intense hurricane activity, Hirschi warned.

The potential dangers will continue to grow annually unless steps are taken to reduce human-caused carbon emissions and reverse deforestation. A scientist stated that altering the current path of global warming is like turning a supertanker, with results not being immediate. However, the earlier we take action, the better chance we have of avoiding negative consequences.

Source: theguardian.com